How is Washington D.C. doing?

A look at demographics, crime, transit, schools, and housing.

Which way, D.C.?

The Wizards and Capitals are fleeing for Virginia. The federal workforce remains largely remote, depriving downtown D.C. of business and tax revenue. Our eternally-flailing Metro system faces a $750 million deficit that could result in dramatic service cuts. In short, the vibes in D.C. are grim.

Is the District in a mere “vibecession” of sorts, or do the data really justify the dour sentiment of locals? As we near the end of 2023, I examine the health of the nation’s capital on key dimensions including demographics, public safety, and school quality.

1. DC has faced one of the steepest population losses among major cities post-pandemic.

After a decade of rapid population growth in which the District added more than 100,000 new residents, the pandemic and its aftermath took a substantial portion of that growth back. As a share of its estimated population on April 1, 2020, DC experienced the sixth-largest decline in population among the 25 largest cities.

As I’ve written of major cities, young families appeared to be leading the exodus. Between April 2020 and July 2022, D.C.’s under-five population fell by more than 3,200, or about eight percent. On this measure, D.C. is at least in line with some nearby peers, as declines in the number of young kids were of similar magnitudes in Philadelphia, New York, and Boston.

2. Homicide and violent crime are way up in D.C., in contrast to national trends.

It’s no secret that the District is experiencing a steep rise in gun violence, but the divergence between Washington and other major cities is striking.

The latest data from the city’s police department shows a more than one-third increase in homicides year-over-year, a two-thirds increase in robberies, and a near-doubling of carjackings.

How does this compare to the national picture? An association of police chiefs from the largest cities and counties in the U.S. and Canada collates data into uniform categories on a quarterly basis. In the first three quarters of 2023, this data showed D.C. had one of the highest year-over-year increase in homicide in the country.

On broader measures of violent crime, the picture in D.C. looks even worse. This same dataset shows a nearly 40 percent year-over-year increase in violent crime, far outpacing increases anywhere else.

District leaders made enormous progress tackling the city’s violent crime problem in the 2000s and 2010s. In two major categories of violent crime—sexual assault and assault with a dangerous weapon—there has been no major spike post-pandemic. But on homicide and robbery, the city has ceded 20 years of progress in a very short period.

Now, the city’s crime picture still looks nothing like it did in the 1990s. Indeed, increases in both violent and property crime have been concentrated in a few categories, perhaps suggesting they are relatively tractable problems. Still, the D.C. of the 1990s was also the murder capital of America. It’s little consolation that today’s D.C. compares favorably.

3. D.C.’s public schools: Truancy has skyrocketed and math scores have not recovered from pandemic-era declines.

On two measures of school performance, D.C. school quality has eroded in the aftermath of the pandemic.

First, the share of District students scoring “proficient” on PARCC and MSAA standardized tests has fallen substantially since 2019. While rates of proficiency in English/Language Arts are not far from pre-pandemic rates, the district has again given back years of progress on math proficiency.

The District’s schools have also made headlines for jaw-dropping rates of truancy. Already having a higher rate of chronic absenteeism that any state pre-pandemic, chronic absenteeism rose in 2022 to nearly half of all students (48 percent). While these numbers did improve in the most recent school year, they remain far above where the District (or any other state) was in the years before the pandemic.

Link: Washington Post

Link: Associated Press

4. The recovery in Metro ridership is in line with peer cities’ systems.

It’s been a wild few years for the Metro. In October 2021, WMATA had to yank all its Kawasaki 7000-series train cars from service—60 percent of its fleet—overnight after a derailment in Arlington. Only late this summer did WMATA finally return these cars to service in full, after more than a year of delays and hiccups.

WMATA now faces an impending $750 million budget shortfall. Its governing board is weighing drastic cost-cutting measures, including ending all service after 10 p.m. and closing ten stations.

Despite all this, the Metro’s ridership recovery has been surprisingly strong in comparison to peer systems’ across the country. Well ahead of the Bay Area’s BART system since early 2022, WMATA’s return rate passed the Chicago Transit Authority’s this summer, too. Average daily entrances in November were 60 percent of the November 2019 average.¹ While New York City’s MTA remains well ahead of WMATA, DC’s ridership looks more impressive when you consider D.C. remains the top city in America for remote work.

While the below data include only a handful of the largest peer systems for comparison, anecdotes from smaller systems look no better. Rail ridership in Atlanta’s MARTA system remains nearly 60 percent below pre-pandemic levels as of September. In Los Angeles, Metro ridership is 25 percent below 2019 levels and 40 percent below 2018. Philadelphia’s SEPTA system is hovering around 60 percent of pre-pandemic service, in-line with WMATA as well.

5. New housing construction in D.C. continues to boom.

Now for some truly good news.

D.C. has continued to build new housing at a torrid pace. More than 7,700 new units were permitted last year, the District’s highest total since 1965. The city’s audacious goal of 36,000 new units by 2025, set in 2019, is well within reach. New housing growth has been one of the District’s greatest assets during its transformation of the last 20 years. To remain a competitive, affordable destination for skilled young people, it simply must be allowed to keep growing.

Conclusion

The District faces real challenges that should not be underestimated. The post-pandemic crime wave threatens to reverse decades of progress on public safety. Allowing this problem to fester will start to seriously affect families’ decision to live within the District. But there is also reason to be optimistic. Developers continue to build new housing at a near-record pace. People are indeed returning to the oft-maligned Metro. D.C. has overcome far worse before, and with serious leadership, may well do so again.

1. Measures of ridership recovery are slightly different across cities. I used the most directly comparable, downloadable measure for each system. Entry and exit totals tent to look pretty similar.